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    A full SaaS valuation model for a Martech AI startup — top-funnel to ARR with retention curves

    3 scenarios

    Base · Upside · Stress

    CAC / LTV

    Unit economics modelled

    Pitch-ready

    Investor presentation

    Overview

    Growthz is a Martech AI startup building on a high-growth SaaS model with a complex tiered pricing structure, upgrade dynamics, and retention curves that define its long-term value. As the founders prepared for their investor raise, they needed a model that went beyond a simple revenue projection — one that correctly captured SaaS mechanics and could stand up to due diligence from growth investors who know exactly what to look for.

    XLURSELF was engaged to build the complete investor valuation model: from top-of-funnel acquisition through conversion, plan selection, monthly upgrades, and cohort-based retention — to final DCF and revenue multiple valuation with a full investor presentation. Full case study details coming soon.

    01

    Challenge

    Full challenge detail coming soon. The engagement required correctly modelling SaaS dynamics — top-of-funnel acquisition, conversion rates, plan distribution, upgrade trajectories, and churn — alongside capital structure review and competitor benchmarking in the Martech AI space.

    02

    Solution

    Full solution detail coming soon. XLURSELF built a comprehensive SaaS valuation model grounded in unit economics — CAC, LTV, cohort retention, and ARR build-up — with multiple scenario plans and a final investor-ready presentation package.

    03

    How We Approached It

    01

    SaaS Business Deep-Dive & Driver Mapping

    Mapped acquisition channels, conversion funnel, plan distribution, ARR drivers, and CAC/LTV dynamics — building a complete picture of the unit economics before a single projection was modelled.

    02

    Capital Structure & Funding Analysis

    Reviewed existing capital structure, funding history, and investor obligations — modelling post-money valuation implications and dilution scenarios across funding rounds.

    03

    Competitor Financial Benchmarking

    Sourced and analysed comparable Martech and SaaS company financials to benchmark gross margins, growth multiples, net revenue retention, and valuation comps as assumption anchors.

    04

    Bottom-Up SaaS Projections: Top Funnel to ARR

    Built granular projections from paid/organic traffic through trial conversion, plan selection, monthly upgrades, and retention by cohort across a 5-year forecast horizon — with full ARR waterfall.

    05

    Valuation Model, Scenarios & Investor Presentation

    Assembled DCF and ARR multiple valuation with Base, Upside, and Stress scenarios including upgrade path sensitivity. Produced the final investor presentation for use with their registered valuer and investor audience.

    04

    Impact

    3 plans

    Scenario coverage

    Base, Upside, and Stress scenarios with upgrade path sensitivity — giving investors a complete picture of the SaaS growth range.

    CAC / LTV

    Unit economics

    Full cohort-based retention and LTV modelling — the metrics growth investors scrutinise most, built with integrity.

    ARR waterfall

    SaaS projection

    Top-funnel to ARR build-up with new MRR, expansion, contraction, and churn modelled separately for each cohort.

    Pitch-ready

    Complete package

    Model, narrative, and investor presentation delivered together for use with their registered valuer and investor audience.

    Key Outcomes

    • Full SaaS valuation model — top-funnel to conversion, plan upgrades, retention curves, and ARR forecast
    • Unit economics framework: CAC, LTV, payback period, and net revenue retention by cohort
    • Competitor financial benchmarking with valuation multiple analysis for Martech AI sector
    • Base, Upside, and Stress scenario plans with upgrade path sensitivity tables
    • Investor-ready presentation deck for use with registered valuer and investor audience

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